Stocks - Creative (currently holding)

Accidentally deleted this post, now I need to re-write it again.

Was thinking of selling some portion of my Creative shares.
One of the good things I learnt from trading Forex.
It is good to gradually reduce your trade size when you are earning or losing money.
So that you lock in on profits, or reduce the damage.
But you must enter the bet size to allow you to do this in the first place. Like for Singapore, minimum is 1000 shares or 1 lot. So you should enter at least 2 lots and above.

Why not sell all?
Currently, they are suing Apple and some other big company for copying their patents.
So that they might get a big increase in cash, that is when I will sell if that comes true.

Why sell?
I have lost confidence in their business.
They have good products, but bad marketing strategy.
I saw their products in Popular book stores.
The kind of place kids go to to stock up on their school supplies.
I thought they are good enough to be standing beside Beats or Bose.

Why buy in the first place?
Good quality products, at very good prices.
Strong balance sheet. High cash, which I think they got it when they successfully sued Apple for copying their MP3 patent.
I think Apple paid them 500 mil.
Low liabilities.
Good PE ratio, below 10.
New Roar portable speakers that launched. I was impressed with the design and capabilities. I thought it could be a game changer for them.

Currently, I have not reduce the lot size yet.
I am not in a rush.
I want to wait awhile after the Christmas period.
They might generate a good profit then.

Mysteriously, the stock price has surged around 5% since last Friday.
No reported news, there should be some insider trading.
Either they know their latest financial results, or they know the status of the legal battle, or someone is simply playing some game to raise the price and offload even more (think Jesse Livermore).

I shall wait for a few more weeks or months to see what unfolds.

Stocks - First REIT (did not buy)

Never bought a REIT before, looking to add one to my portfolio.

I like its website, clean and neat.

I like its idea. Hospitals, and nursing homes. The world will have many long life old people soon.

Heavily invested in Indonesia. Great because I want to ride on the most powerful thriving SEA country. Around 10 facilities there.

3 facilities in Singapore. 

1 facility in South Korea.

PE ratio is around 8.

Revenue doing well in 4Q, but, net income suffered.

So you will see the PE ratio increasing in the next reporting, as EPS dips.

This is my favorite REIT, and I may monitor it.

Dividend yield of around 5%.

The other REIT catering to hospital and nursing home is AIMS REIT, I think. 

But their focus is on Japan, which in my view, does not have a great potential to boom more than Indonesia.

Stocks - Lian Beng (did not buy)

Similar to Chip Eng Seng. I want to ride on the '6.9 million population by 2020' construction trend, I don't need 2 companies that are similar.
Similar to Lantro, they also have an ugly website.
Their management have many links to the government.
The CEO has a meaty nose. Chinese people think that it stands for prosperity, think Jackie Chan.
Their PE ratio is only 3.
Their financial statistics are like steps. All increasing.

But one major thing is that they are quite stingy with dividends. Around 1-2%.

I am starting to buy shares that pay good dividends, as I am aiming to be financial free.

Assuming dividend yield of 4%, 

200k, I have close to 1k per mth.

100k, I have close to 500 per mth.

50k, I have around 250 per mth.

It feels good to be paid not doing anything. Make your money work for you.

They have healthy balance sheet, quite a lot of cash.

Stocks - Welcome Lantro Vision

Added Lantro Vision to my portfolio today.
I am quite bullish about the market.
I feel it is in the middle between low confidence and over-confidence.
I do not have much cash left, which is not ideal.
My theory is that I should hold 50% cash of what I have in shares.
Why?
So that when the stock market crash, I can use the money to buy cheap stocks.
It is to keep me unworried about market crash, and know what to do then.
I am likely to have a decent bonus next year in February.
So the bonus will be used for me to increase my cash.

Lantro Vision (bought)
Ok PE ratio of around 11%.
Very good balance sheet. Their cash is 30 mil. Their current liabilities is 32 mil.
Total Liabilities is very low.
They do networking, and cloud computing, etc.
I can imagine them being part of the development of many SEA countries.
I can also use them to ride on the data center hype.
Their website looks ugly and cheap. Reminds me of what Peter Lynch said. He is impressed with companies that are thrifty. He mentioned about one company last time when he met the CEO, the CEO does not waste any paper, and uses back unwanted paper to write notes.
They pay decent dividends, at 0.05, and their current price is 0.55. Around 5% dividend yield.
Their 4Q 2014 result is also good. Increase in revenue, and even better increase in net income.

Lets talk technical analysis.

I also feel it is a right time to enter.
Upward long term trend.
Hit the support zone around 3 times recently.
The last hit, there is a bullish pin bar present.

742 - start time

Since I am only looking at Daily charts at the moment, I need to know an answer to an important question.
What time in Singapore does a new Daily candle pop up?
I could have earned more from yesterday's trade if I traded earlier.

At the moment, it is 7pm in Singapore, and it shows 19:00 on the chart.
A new Daily candle starts at 00:00, which is 12 am in Singapore.

hmm... you mean charts in Singapore look different compared to charts in US??

742 - Aftermath of yesterday

Sad that I am not able to place 2 lots.
But I have to come back slowly, sticking to the principles.
Or philosophy, which Van Gaal always says.
It is still a long way back.
But hopefully, I can revive this account back to previous levels.

About what is different from last time, is the additional step of looking at the bigger trend.
Below are the steps.
The first step save me from spending too much time looking at currencies everyday.

1. Price Action
2. Support/Resistance level
3. Long term trend

Good day!

519 - enter the dragon

Sad I do not have enough money for 2 lots.
But this trade is ideal.
Upward long term trend.
Recently retraced to support zone.
Then there was an outstanding price action.
A bullish pin with long tail.

As I only have one lot, I have no choice but to sell at the next resistance zone.
Hopefully the price retrace again for me to enter again.

Stocks- Chip Eng Seng

I am still monitoring Forex.
Just that this time, I also pay attention to the overall trend.
I use Daily candles.
Cause the platform I am using, only for Dailies then I can zoom out to see the trend.

I have no holidays, and a little bonus.
So I am currently studying shares now.
It is great that I learnt more.
I recently bought Chip Eng Seng. Why?

Construction and building company.
Singapore's infrastructure is constantly upgrading, the company is one of the major civil engineers.
Singapore's target of 6.9 million people on 2020.
The company constructs many BTOs (New flats for new couples).
There had been many Share Buy backs, stocking up on their treasury shares.
The PE ratio is low, around 7.
The attractive part is that Sep financial report is superb, around double the net profit of the same time last year.
Another thing, they pay decent dividends. Around 4.5%.

Currently, I am also learning about web development.
Got many inspirations. From my army friend, and my secondary school friend.
It seems good to have a purpose even when I am home.
The feeling of spending time on something and knowing it can improve my knowledge and my skill.
It is also relevant to my work, as I broaden my knowledge about programming.

Overall, things are good~

519 - potential

 Long term up trend

 Mid term, resistance level

If short term there is a bullish signal, can consider entering.

519 - keep calm, and let thoughts flow in

Was thinking of entering long on this yesterday.
Anyway I have been talking about this pair quite lately.
Nowadays, I am thinking about trend trading.
Like what Kathy Lien said, it is one of the style which most hedge fund managers use.
Maybe I can combine price actions and trend trading.
Below is a picture.

So I realized I can be a contrarian, and also a trend trader.
For example, the overall trend is bullish.
I enter when it rebounces off a resistance zone.

Above : Same pair, just a bigger picture.

Maybe my new strategy:

1. See the long term trend
2. wait for it to retrace to a support or resistance zone
3. use price action to decide if the trend will continue strongly again, or is it coming to a u-turn.

519 - still going gd

Did not enter the trade as mentioned in one of the old post.
Today it seems gd.

519 - GBP creating an action

Both charts are similar.
However, one doubt I am having is regarding the pin itself.
The tail is not really 3/4 of the candle.
The candle itself is also not that large, or significant, compared to its predecessor.
I remembered reading before, when there are many large candles before, it may be the momentum is taking a breaking for the moment.

519 - thoughts on Ray Dalio video*

Ray Dalio did an amazing video, trying to educate people about the economy.
It seems simple, but it is those video that I do not really get the point.
I rewatched it again, and somehow it gets a little bit clearer.

The debt cycle is like human.
We are optimistic, so we spend more, and with the help of credit.
The same human is like the economy.
When people are very positive and excited, we all put out our money to spend and invest.
Everything starts to go up.
That is when the down slope of the cycle happens.
Something burst, and slowly things get dragged down by it.
Then we go back to the way of cutting spending, and being thrithy.
We are also scared to invest, and work hard to survive.
But it is also the time when assets are good in value.

519 - follow-up

This seems to becoming a potential trade.
But I must remember, it is only high probability.
I hope that the money that I have left can allow me to enter at least 2 lots.

519 - nice but...

The tails at both ends are a bit too long.

519 - something to monitor

Nothing much that I see since my trashing.
Only the above, which is reaching its support zone.

519 - improve from failure

Above from previous post.

One way I can improve from previous loss. 

Before I entered the trade, I should thought about the below.

There is actually no resistance zone.

Because price only tested it once.

So the next time the price area is tested again, it can be used to determine if it can form a zone.

519 - update on destruction

The above further destroyed me.
Saw a bearish pin at resistance zone.
But it continued heading higher.
On a positive note, I set Stop Loss at 3/4 of the tail.
Still, I am at my lowest point ever.

Well, keep calm, and carry on.

782 - not a very good day

Bought Sir Alex Ferguson limited edition pins from England.

Bought 10 of it, thinking of selling it for  profit.

But 2 of it was spoilt.

And the shipping and tax itself cost close to SGD 300 (107+183).

Forex wise was also bad.

Though I won a small trade, but I closed off soon, as I cannot really determine the 2nd resistance line.

Below is the trade which I won. The red oval is the indicator.

It is a big engulfing candle rebounding from the support zone.

I think I made close to 100 SGD, which I bought and sold within today.

Below is another trade which I just entered.

It is a daily chart.

Pin formed, and the body is red.

Only concerned is that the tail might not be long enough.

But to me, it looks quite significant in the chart.

The resistance zone is also supported by 2 previous mountain peaks.

A lesson from a few posts back, I also set the Stop Loss around 3/4 of the tail.

I spent so much money recently.

Bought a 1963 classic Omega watch for around 1k SGD.

But I really liked it, and I also bargained with the seller to get it more than 100 USD cheaper.

I had been looking for a more pricey watch for quite some time, and I am quite happy with it.

But one thing is that it is 34mm, which a lot of people finds it like a girl watch.

Watches of the past are smaller.

But I have quite slim hands, so hopefully it is alright.

And also the more I looked at it, the more I get used to it, the more I adore it.

Other than that, I also bought some presents for my girlfriend.

It is not very costly. And of course, it is crucial. No complains.

Are mentioned above, the pins cost me around 1k SGD.

And also, the most expensive item that is still yet to arrive is a photograph.

Hand signed by Alex Ferguson.

I got it from a charity auction online, and it was a bidding war in the last few seconds.

My was the cheapest, and all I wanted was something collectible from one of the person I respect most in the world.

When I bid for it, I have the idea I will be a rich person next time.

And that made me think that it is a small price to pay.

However, with Forex keeps getting from positive to negative, it made me feel that idea of my rich self getting harder.

Well, after a while, it will be ok.

Just have to forget about the expenses, and focus on earning more.

927 - getting crushed again

Things to remember

For engulfing, the opening and closing should be close to highest and lowest price.

For pin, the tail should be around 3 times longer than its body. Regarding its Stop Loss, set it around 3/4 of the tail.

From the 'Trading in the Zone' book

Compare :

Person with very good analysis skill and knowledge, but poor control over emotions.
Person with basic and amateur trading skills, but good emotional control and stability.

The latter is better.

Bad memory is like an energy.
Like if you got bitten by a dog before, it will trigger the energy in your brain if you meet one in future.
Use this same principle in trading.
You lost before, and it will sometimes be triggered.
But it is only an energy, and don't let it undermine you strategy.

The whole book is saying for trading, it is all about managing yourself.
You can do well with just any normal strategy.
Many people make the mistake of looking for other strategies when they lose.
Or studying more to try to win.
Actually, it is a lot about being able to handle yourself.

1182 - how can I improve from my previous lost?

One of the thing I could do better is play even more defensively.
How?

Consider setting the stop loss even higher up.

One of the reason is that it is taught to the increasing population of price action trades. It was advised to them to place the stop loss around 3/4 of the tail. So the first reason is crowded mentality, that will be moving the price. When price goes pass 3/4 of the tail, very likely this huge crowd of traders will exit at the same time, pushing the price pass the tail of the pin.

The other reason is that a pin is supposed to be a very strong indicator of the price moving away from it.
But if price still comes back close to it, maybe the pin has become invalid.

1182 - don't understand, but just follow

Lost money in the below trade.

I went to read about pin bars.
It is supposed to be small body, big tail.
The tail should be 3 times longer than the body.
Apparently, the above does not qualify.
And I seriously do not understand the logic.
Isn't it an even better version of pin?
Not only does it form a pin, it continues to surge higher, forming a larger body.
But why is still a pin better?
Haha, I do not understand.
But at least I learnt not to go against it.

Apparently, but don't understand.
Here is something to cheer me up.

1299 - Quick follow up from previous post

I decided against the NZD/USD long trade.

Reason :

The engulfing pattern is pretty short and insignificant.
I rather see a longer red candle, followed by an even longer green one.
Another thing is that the tail, I like it to be even more trimmed.
The body of the green engulfing candle should be more full.

1300 - Some action in Daily Charts

Bullish engulfing.
But the previous support is quite close.

AUD, which is related to the current trade I am in.
It is a good sign, which I am also long, in 4 hour charts.
So most like I will skip this one.

Similar to NZD, EUR is also gaining strength against USD.
This one has a bullish pin, but the pin is short, and it is not green.
The engulfing is also not a really fimilar one.
Engulfing to me, seem more like a full red candle, followed by a full green one to counter it.
I prefer the NZD/USD to this one.

1305 - after the calm, a delimma

When you won some money, you have the fear of losing it.
Today I had some doubts about the below.

Ok, here is the question.
Is the above a pin?
My impression of a pin is a candle with short body and long tail.
But the above has quite a long body and a long tail.
But isn't the above even better than pin?
Reason being it has not only rejected the support and form a long tail.
It has also have enough momentum to produce a strong green body.

That is the main reason I enter the trade.
And I am not really sure if I am correct.

1342 - explosion

Explosion today!
Japan wants to have a bigger currency base.
I was told of that when eating subway with my office colleagues.
Then when I check my account using my hand phone, it was up $100.
When I returned from lunch, it was up another $50.
And after a while, it killed the limit stop.
Was quite satisfied with my stop loss.
Now the bull run is facing some resistance.
But so glad that I am back to near the level since the previous time my fund peaked.
And during this period of plunging fund, I learned more to eliminate some trades I should not enter.
Like for pins, it should be a green candle if it to be a bullish pin.
And for engulfing, the candle should be full, as in the tails should not be very long.
The open and close price should be quite to the high and the low of the candle.
For now, I am happy!

1161 - Following up on previous Daily trade

From the previous post, I mentioned about one of my Daily trade.
It is has earned a lot for me.
But I currently still have 1 lot remaining.

This post is about where I reset my Stop Loss.
I set it somewhere around my entry point.
The reason?
There is actually a support zone a little above it, if you look around June.
I guess this is what Conrad Lim might be talking about.
Defensive trading.
Whatever happens, I lock in some profit.
It also has enough space to take some retracements.

1158 - back with a bang

 Above is the Daily trade (though I screen shot it in 4 hr chart).
Big profit here.
Closed one trade even before it hit the Limit Stop.
Slightly, so it is ok.
There is another Limit Stop for the remaining one.
So it might drop my current fund, or might increase past 1.2k.
This is my first Daily chart victory, even since I start my new strategy.
I might adjust the Stop Loss of the remaining lot, to lock in some profit.
But I am glad that my fund made a big jump!

The above is my 4 Hr trade.
The one which I only had even money for 1 lot.
If not, I could have made more.
You can see many people also sold when it reached closed to the resistance zone.

956 - Added 1 lot

Added the above, but only 1 lot instead my usual 2.
Not enough funds, also not so sure why.
But things for Forex are going fine now.
But nothing counts when the positions does not close.
Anything can happen.

926 - starting to feel it

Not feeling a big win.
But starting to get a bit of emotions from trading.
Because the trade I am in is using Daily charts.
The stakes are bigger.
And my funds are dwindling.
It is a relief now, but not sure for the next morning I wake up.
It is so turbulent.
I was on a lost this morning, my funds was around 700.
Now my funds are around 926.
So not sure, just continue my life.
See what others ways I can make money in life to divert my attention.

Come to think of it, the most important trading book I read up to now is the renown 'trading in the zone'.
As the money involved gets bigger, the book becomes more relevant.

899 - long way to go

Hope this trade can make it.
Day trades are really very high stakes, it only rose a bit but it made 100.
I also can lose a lot.
I had not won a daily candle trade since I started this trading strategy.
Which is support/resistance and price actions.
I hope my first will come soon.

797 - Pin, a good and bad example

 Good example. The pin is green, which is a criteria for bullish pin.

Bad example. Even though it is a nice pin at the support zone, it is red. The closing price has to be higher than the opening price to be qualified as a bullish pin.

863 - army time

Army time for 2 weeks, still one more week to go.
Been doing the trading in camp using my Android phone.

 Winning (4 Hourly)

Big Bullish engulfing at support zone.

Winning (4 Hourly)

Nice bullish pin at support zone.

Lost (Daily)

This Daily trade cost me big loss even though my 2 4-hourly are winning.
I entered as the bear seem to lose its momentum at the support.
There are 2 nice pins, or dojis.
But the preceding bearish candle killed it.

1034 - The most attractive

After having a 2nd look, the above is my favorite among the 3 mentioned in the previous post.
The main reason is because the candle is larger, compared to the surrounding candles.
The tail is very obvious.
However, it is a smaller boy, compared to the bullish pin on 19 Sep.
Therefore, I am still having 2nd thoughts.

1034 - choices of the day

Only one valley. 

Would be better if price was rejected more times in the past.

But nevertheless, the bear run seems to dry up there around 2 occasions.

 Similar to the previous.
Only 1 peak, would be better if more price were rejected before.
The pin qualifies, as the tail seems more than 3/4, barely.
The previous currency seems to be a better trade.
As the tail is longer, and also previous price rejection also had a longer pin.

The one is better than the previous 2, in terms of the zone being more obvious.
Price was rejected for around 4 occasions.
However, the pin is not as sexy as the first 1.
A bit short for my liking.
It will be best if it seems to pierce through the skies.

None of the 3 trades are very tempting to me...
But I will take more looks at them.

1055 - many bad results

Top is about to fail trade.
Bottom already closed out.
The string of bad results really all come at once.

On a positive note, I still have 1k.
Hope my trading journey has a light at the end of the tunnel.

1303 - wasted no time

Was quick to place the above trade, as it was rising.
Pretty obvious resistance at 96.5.
A nice pin pierced it, and was rejected strongly, forming a long tail and small head.

1270 - 2 pins

There are 2 pins, price rejected twice.
But the problem is 0.632 is not really a strong support zone.
The stronger support zone is 0.630.

1273 - AUD/GBP entered

A follow-up from the previous post, the below is the choice.

Thanks for me talking to myself on this blog.

2 Stop loss, 1 limit stop.

The limit stop is placed just before the resistance zone, and before the 0.xx00 decimal.