Again more DBS

Bought 200 DBS shares again.
Sold my stake in Chip Eng Seng.
So it is like replacing CES shares with DBS.
CES has higher dividends @ 5.6%. DBS @ 5%.
But just pondered which company between the 2 can sustain and even grow its dividends.

Was considering selling CES or Lian Beng.
Was checking on Lian Beng, still liked it for its prudence.
Even though revenue is dropping, they have also saved up some cash.
My thought was to reduce my holdings on businesses that have heavy reliance on Singapore property developments.
Because the government is trying to curb the property prices, trying to dull the property activity.
Lian Beng dividend is lower, at around 4%, but the dividend payout ratio is low, which is good, at around 30%. One sign to show its prudence.
CES payout ratio was around 60%.
LB are also looking to invest into UK, and some other countries, etc.
CES on the other hand, is investing into Australia, which I am not too optimistic about.
Australia is separated or not close to the Belt and Road initiative.
I also watched a video by 60 mins recently that their properties are in a bubble.
Not too sure about how credible is it, but Australia also does not really have anything that stand out at the moment.
Places like Malaysia or Vietnam excite me more.

Another reason I make this move is also after seeing my portfolio in SGX website.
DBS is the share that I like the most, with very tech aggressive transformation.
I saw that a share that I adore so much should also be more significance in my portfolio.
After my share movement today, it is now my biggest investment in my Singapore portfolio, close to 20% (local shares).
If they dip to around S$20, I will buy more. And more if it goes around S$15.
I have not really touched my war chest yet.
Same thinking as how I see Google, I want to own a certain portion of it first.
Then when the price dips, I will buy more of it.
I am more urgent to possess part of the company first.

Another factor I like DBS more is because of a youtuber.
He is Canadian, and one of his videos was discussing about his stock portfolio, which he openly showed his account, the money and the stocks inside.
He said Canadian banks are very good and stable, and he holds quite a few of the major ones.
I see Singapore also in the same situation, with a stable government.
I might look into UOB or OCBC too, currently the 3 banks are similar in terms of valuation.
I like DBS a lot more than the other 2 mainly because it is very tech driven.
The youtuber also mentioned that his Canadian bank shares pay him dividends quite well.

Another thought is that banks hire many smart people.
Smart enough to navigate in times of crisis.
The best companies that is likely to maneuver in difficult times and thrive is like to be banks, as they also have access to golden informations.
There are also enough smart people in DBS to take advantage of opportunities in SEA, like Grab or Go-jek, something I have no access to.
Moreover, DBS is now swallowing smart tech people.

I also checked out  their performance during the 2007 crisis.
They are quite stable, slight dip for around 2 years, and stable growth afterwards.
Their growth is good, but not impressive.
That is what I like about it, minimum damage during crisis, and consistent growth when times are good.
So if another crisis comes, I believe they can manage it quite decently.

2010 DBS annual report

Many thoughts this morning, and I also took a longer time to make a decision, whether to buy 100 shares, or 200.
And whether should I let go of one company. And which company to let go.
By the time I bought the shares it was 24.08.
It opened at around 23.7.
But well, if you love something, these are little things that you should not bother.
And it is for the long term.

More DBS

Bought 100 more shares of DBS.
This is unusual for me. Normally I will wait for shares to drop to a support level before buying.
I did it this time as I am accumulating too much cash than I like.
Especially when I will be getting more inflows from bonuses.
I was waiting for market dip from trade war, I did buy some, but the dip was not very severe.
Trade war between US and China is still ongoing.
I still need to keep a level of cash.
But at the same time, I need to increase my holding of investments.
So I have to do it lightly, always keeping an eye on a good war chest in times of chance.

Another reason for buying is also because the share is at fair value.
PE ratio at 11, dividends at 4%.
I like like the future of DBS.
Compared to the other giant banks, UOB and OCBC, I feel DBS is more tech driven.
UOB is using Silverlake's product for their internet website, and maybe their internal systems.
I think DBS hires a lot of developers, and build systems in house.
They claim that they are a tech company rather than a bank, and I love the idea.
That is the only way to compete with the fast rising Grab, Razer, etc.

I will still buy DBS if they continue dropping to S$20, and $15, etc.
For now, I just want to increase my dividend generators, but it must be acquired at least at fair values.

Haiyo JD ar

Sold all my JD.com shares.
The reuters report about the rape incident sounds convincing.

The boss was in the car with drunk student.
His PA was in the front seat.
PA the boss to stop caressing the student, but the boss told her to not bother.
The car was driven to the house of the victim.
Boss spent 4 hours there, to satisfy himself.

If that was really true, then the stock is meaningless.
It is also a good time to free up some funds, and buy other ailing companies.
Like Facebook, many others.
My interest to enter other stocks are much stronger than showing faith in that stock.
Zuckerberg is also facing some problems.
He and his company engaged some companies to tarnish the name of others.
But I still love and use his products, rape is a totally different level.

Very greedy now, more Nvidia

I am feeling very greedy now.
Nvidia just crashed to US$152 per share, and I doubled my holdings.
There were concerns about cryptocurrency crashing, and demand for graphics card will dip.
But I made the decision based mainly on its PE.
TTM PE is around 20.
I am buying for the future, as machine learning will grow even more in future.
And graphics card is needed to power it.
The previous time I bought Nvidia was at US$230.
So I have averaged down the share price to around US$191.
My only concern is AMD.
They have a new CEO that seems to be doing a good job.
She is Lisa Su, and she is challenging Intel and Nvidia for processor and graphics card.
I might buy some AMD when it is close to US$15 per share.
But I think the demand for graphics card is good enough for 2 major competitors.
Currently AMD is not making profit, but their sales is very impressive.
Sales is around US$4, which is one quarter of their share price.

At this time of my aggressive buying, I need to balance if the market crashes.
It is still not in a crisis yet, but I only have enough fund in my Ameritrade to buy 2 more shares.
My bank account still have enough to buy around 6 lots of my Singapore shares.
But note that my 1 purchase value of Singapore share is around 3 times of my US share.
Taking into consideration I will have additional funds from my year end 13th mth bonus.
I should be doing ok in terms of keeping bullets.
And also recessions last for 6 mths to 1.5 years, so during that time I can accumulate more cash.
I also have the option of selling my precious metals to fund, but only in the event that silver price goes up during the crisis.
I also have the option of borrowing money from bank, as the current job I am in seems quite stable.

So I will be greedy while others are fearful, but keeping an eye on my warchest if crisis really hits.

Welcome Zillow!

Zillow crashed, so I went to find out more about the company.
I always like their website.
Always very interested in looking at real estates in USA.
US have a lot land, and seeing the prices are affordable compared to Singapore.
USA population is growing, and China population is stagnating.
Even though China is a rising dragon, I also feel USA have a bright future.
They have freedom and their citizens can buy big houses.
When they have a good life, they will want children.
I believe that properties in US will be hot in future, and foreigners have easy access to it.

If property is like gold rush of the future, then Zillow may be the spade seller.
Recently they are expanding into the business of buying houses and re-selling it after they market and renovate it. They are even offering loans after the buyer purchase.
Their data is the advantage, using it to predict which properties are good value, and can be sold for better profit.

I watched videos of their CEO and also like him.
He is focus on giving a better service to their users, rather than thinking about how to gain a profit from them.
So I liked what I purchased, and will have a more enjoyable time when I surf their website moving forward.

More BABA

Bought another portion of Ali Baba shares.
Was afraid the price will be too ex after 11.11.
But lucky it was ok, bought another 5 @ $146.
In fact it is sliding to $143 10 mins after I bought.
But it is ok, will be prudent too and buy more when shares dip to the next support (around $120).
The previous and first time I bought was around $170, the previous support zone.

Like the idea that they are quite focused on cloud computing.
Don't think Tencent is doing it.
If Alibaba is dominant in cloud computing, China is a big market for them to milk.

Currently I have JD, Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba.
Together they add up to USD$5k, which was my target for China shares.

More Tencent

Markets may be approaching exciting times.
Times of good discounts.
Bought another 20 Tencent (TCHEY).
The next time I buy should be around USD$23.
I take the chance to accumulate China shares.
The next one I am eyeing is Ali Baba.
But there is still some way to go before I buy BABA.
I am waiting for USD$120 for BABA.
Which is good, so that I am not on a buying frenzy. Need to save bullets if markets crash.

More Capitaland

Price has dropped to 3.12.
It is one of the first share I ever bought.
Previously I paid 3.76, around there.
That was many years ago, might be around the time of my first job, which is 7 or 8 years ago.
I still have that share.
So with this purchase, I have averaged out my purchase price to around 3.44.

Like it more, after reading more info about them.
SEA has growth potential, and to me buying their share means investing into SEA.
I read somewhere that 50% of their assets are in countries with matured economies, and the other half is on countries that are growing. For example Myanmar.
The decisions they make are also in line with my idea about the future.
Recently they sold 20 of their retail malls in China.
I liked the idea, as malls to me is going to be disrupted in China by eCommerce.
And also, China is aggressively building too many of it. I am guessing.

Their PE ratio is around 9.5, and dividend yield at 3.85%.
Dividend payout ratio is around 1/3 of their earnings.
Many people now think that the economy will be heading for a downturn.
And I also feel it may, and it may be a long one.
After hearing Jack Ma say the trade war between US and China may last 20 yrs.
But I will not stop buying and guess the bottom.
Rather I will try to slow down the buying, and remember to keep some bullets to buy more during the great discount sale.

Start trading again

I am looking to start trading again.
Have been looking for ways to make more $, after reading the books that I wanted to read.
Finished LKY and Robert Kuok books.
Wanted something to fill my life to make myself productive.

So I will try to restart trading again.
Just found a missing piece of my strategy (I think).
That is to use SMA 200 to determine if it is down or up trend.
It is downtrend when line is sloping down, vice versa.

I will trade in 5 mins, major FX currencies, just like old times.
Still have 3k left in my IG account.

Firstly will determine is it is up or down trend using SMA 200.
If down trend, I will wait for it to hit the resistance level.
Then I will enter.
If it break above resistance lvl, I will exit soon.
Keep in mind that Profit Limit should be at least 2 times of Stop loss.
Learning from Adam Khoo, bet size should be around 1-2% of the money you have.
Why? It is like trading in casino with odds in your favour.
Short term you may not win, not in 100 bets, you will win.
For my case I have 3k, so my bet size should be around $30.
When I lose, it is $30, and at least $60 when I win.
My Profit Limit should be set considering the next Support lvl (if down trend).

Adam Khoo youtube, and moving forward

I think he has one of the most informative youtube videos, and they are free.

Just direct and efficient.

Video start, hands on, get to see how he does things.

Link below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBmcK8pTdFU&t=77s

Some things interest me in the 17 min video.

Bear markets can last 6 mths to 1.5 years.

He uses 50, 150, 200 simple moving averages.

How to set in thinkorswim?

Go to charts, studies, select simple moving average, then edit studies to select periods for SMA.

SMA is useful for SPX (S&P500) chart, to see if the market is on up or down trend.

Amazon quite often bounces away from SMA 200.

Apple quite often bounces away from SMA 150.

I usually set SMA 200 in green, as I feel it is the long term story, and green means calm.

SMA 50 is usually red for me, as it is more intense, and represents more current emotions.

When SMA 200 is sloping downwards, it can mean a bear market.

Currently my thoughts on the market is that it may be a long awaited bear market.

But I will slow down on my buying.

I will still buy, but cautiously.

I want to have enough bullets when prices are real good.

But will still buy slowly just in case the bear won't last.

One way to know when prices are quite good is when stocks go to levels of 2008 crisis.

Maybe I will already have spent 50% of my reserves at the level, with the thinking that this crisis may be even worse then the previous.

I am also looking forward to stock up on Chinese shares.

China scares me, and one way to allay my fears is to invest in them.

Staying with Elon

Tesla shares is down again, at USD 268 each.
He mocked SEC again on Twitter after making a settlement with them.

I bought another 3 shares.
I am thinking only long term here.
It is the only proper electric car company in US.
I am buying more than I want to, around 4k USD on their shares.
Hope they get through this uncertain times.

A bit of Tencent and JD.com

Added another 10 shares of Tencent.
Did not buy 20 which is the usual lot I will buy for US share.
This is because it may fall further due to the persistent trade war, so I settled for the middle.

Also bought JD.com. Was looking at it since yesterday.
But was interested in it after watching Richard Liu's interview.
What is the difference between Ali Baba and JD.com?
JD.com ships the product by themselves, Ali Baba relies on 3rd party logistics.
To me, JD.com wants to build a very quality foundation, which is their logistics.
Richard is very focused on the customers' shopping experience.
As the people of China get richer, JD.com's quality will become valuable.
Also, JD.com shares have plunged alot.
Their sales per share in 2017 was US$37, and their current share price is US$26.

Future is China

Bought Baidu and Tencent shares.
Was happy to know that I can buy Tencent shares from TD Ameritrade (under stock quote TCEHY).
Great as I do not need to pay for custodian fees.

I bought Baidu as the PE is good (20), and their half year profit is already up 35% (i think..).
They are like the Google of China, even if they slowly get destroyed by Ali Baba or Tencent, it may not be so soon.
They are also investing in AI, and doing the self driving project in China.
If there is a financial crisis, it will still do okay as people with no money can still surf net for free (and they may use the internet even more).

Out of the BAT (top 3 China shares), I like Tencent the most.
They are omnipresent.
I bought it later than the other 2 because I did not know how to buy them.

I am starting to like China shares, and will look to increase the portion in my portfolio.
And now is a decent time, as US and China might be having a trade war.
And China shares are tanking.
It is impossible or hard to stop China from becoming mighty and powerful.
Their urban population will burgeon even more, due to migration from rural areas.

However, China shares is something that I do not have a good feel of.
I do not use their products or services, I can only read up on them.
All I know is that I feel uneasy about the rising power of China, just as I feel the same for AI and automation.
So investing in them will help me be part of the evolution, turning my fear into an opportunity.

DBS finally

Just bought DBS shares, only the minimal.
Was not hungry for it, rather just bought it as the fundamentals are decent.
My thinking is that there are 2 types of timing to buy shares.
One is to gradually increase your investments, rather than always wait for a crash first.
This should be slow and steady, and when the PE is at least not ridiculous.
DBS PE ratio is around 15.
The other timing is when there is a crash, a great discount for your shopping wants.

One reason for me to pull the trigger was because their half yearly net income was up 20%.
If the price descend into $22.5 area (the next resistance zone), I would buy another portion.

Currently the financial market is uncertain, as there may be a looming trade war between US and China.
So it is always important that you have a stash of fund to inject gradually if there is a crash.
Currently my cash is around 20% of my portfolio.

Liking for Ali again

Bought 5 shares of Ali Baba.
Used to own it with IG account, but lost interest for it to buy it back.
But recently I liked it again.

They worked with Starbucks to open a very futuristic Starbucks.
Shows that they are keen to modernize China.
Buying them might mean catching on China's growing middle class.

They bought Lazada and also many other SEA companies.
I like and use Lazada. They are basically capitalizing on the growth of SEA.

Had a talk with my father about my fear of China.
But I understood more about the situation. China is open in some ways, and I can fairly invest in them. They are open to competition.

They bought and own South China Morning Post. They hired a Ivy League young man of 30+ age to run it, and kept producing quality news on my Facebook.
But recently I read that they may have the mission of changing the world view of China using soft power.

The CEO Jack Ma seems to have a decent character. On the long run, it is important for making sound decisions for the company.

Technically it is also a good time to buy, as they reached one of the support zones @ $171.

I am also grateful to have cleared out most of my shares in IG just before the recent dip.
Now I only have Google and Uniqlo in the account.

Another lot of Tesla added

Tesla has reached a resistance zone after dipping.
It is probably due to the news about self-driving Uber car killing a person.
Or just bad news about its production line to deliver the crazy demand of its Model 3.
Why did I want to buy again?

I just thought their numbers are very good.
1 Share cost US$313.
Sales per share in 2017 was US$70.
And this sale is when they are very behind schedule to deliver the heavy demand of Model 3.
What will their sale be when their manufacturing starts to improve over time?
In my opinion, US$313 seems like a good price in proportion to their sales when it is still far from their potential.

Go Elon!

Also closed my Amazon position (of 1 share) in IG account.
Think it made more than US$500.
Now, the IG account has only Uniqlo and Google left.
Want to bleed less from the daily charge, and also be more prepared in case there is a crash.
Currently my war chest has been reduced by recent buying of local REITs and US shares.
But it is still at a good amount.
Another push factor for closing the Amazon share was because EU just announced to tax the tech giants more.
Even so, there is not much movement in the share price.

Another lot of Facebook

Facebook is currently tanking, due to breach of users' data.
They banned Cambridge Analytica (or something), which helped Trump in election before becoming president.
I think the Analytica guys came out with some psychology test to get people to share their data.

But just had some sudden thoughts.
Facebook PE ratio now is 30.
If they doubled their profits again this year, their PE ratio will be 15 next year.

They have doubled their earnings in 16 and 17.
Another thought also hit my mind.
If there is a crash, people will still be using Facebook.
People may not be buying on Amazon or Apple.
I think it is a good chance to take advantage of this downswing and increase my stakes in the FANG.

Also took the chance to offload Apple share in IG account.
Earned me around USD660 profit since I bought it in 2016.
It is my least favorite amongst the tech giants, as I am an Android fan.
Also good to lower my exposure in case of a crash, since I just bought Facebook.
Also cut my daily fees in IG platform.

Singtel, Viva Commercial Trust

Bought both shares these few weeks.
Like Singtel for its consistent dividends (5%), and also its business shift into Analytics and Cyber Security.
Also bought it because it dipped to a resistance level. Bought it at 3.39.

For Viva, like it because it is more invested into Business Parks. Smaller % on logistic and others.
Business Park in my view are offices that are not located in prime areas.
The other stock is Mapletree Commercial Trust.
But I did not buy that as it has risen in recent times.
Viva still has very attractive dividend at around 8%.
And though the share price also rose, but not much in my memory.
It was 0.8 in 2015, and I bought it yesterday at 0.89.

Also considered OUE and Mapletree Greater China.
Did not buy them in the end.
Greater China has properties in prime China cities.
But much of its rental yields also come from their retail.
Their properties are mix of retail and office.
I am interested in office.
For OUE, I liked it as it is a simple and elegant stock.
They have 3 beautiful office properties, one facing Marina and another in CBD.
The 3rd one is in China.
Their Price / Book value is very good at 0.5.
But I decided against buying OUE.
Singapore wants to spread offices into all 4 corners in Singapore.
They will also have good transport network, especially MRT in maybe 5 years time.
Properties in CBD will go down.
That is maybe why OUE Price / Book value is so low.
Finance companies might be disrupted in future, and many of them are in CBD.
Even Google, a company that I think will be massive, and is already massive, has Singapore HQ located in a Business Park (owned by Mapletree Commercial REIT).

Nowadays I am hungry for high dividend stocks.
It is a great feeling to earn dividends every year, and I hope it increase it.
It will take pressure away from your job and life.
If ever you don't have a job, you have soldiers of dividend shares to support you slightly.
I have to keep in mind to have a backup cash to pour into when there is a crash.
Need to balance between increasing investments and being defensive at the same time.

Short term, Long term

Short term (as in next few days) strategy, will be to do nothing.
Below is S&P 500 Daily chart, the big dip in previous few days is visible.
Remembered Mike Maloney, the guy who keeps selling silver, mentioned a theory called 'dead cat bounce'.
There is a chance that the stock market next few days may display this phenomena.
It is when there is a big crash, the market will rally slightly upwards ( not higher than previous high ), then proceed to crash further again.
But it may not be the case too, cause earnings are generally going strong.
I will just rest for now, and wait for my 3rd fund to enter my Ameritrade account.

Long term, I am bullish on Big Data, AI.
Putin said, who ever wins the AI race will control the world.
And AI depends on the size of your data.
That is why I am enamored with Google.
I also love their products too.
Other AI related companies are Facebook, Amazon, Nvidia.

Hi Tesla and Tableau, Ali maybe not now

Bought back 3 Tesla shares using Ameritrade account.
Some of the reasons that I am reminded why I liked them :

• Sales per share is so high compared to Price of each share. $11 to $82
• They sell solar, which may be the energy of the future
• They have the giant Gigafactory. If clean energy picks up, they can capitalize on it
• It is hard to stop Elon Musk when he wants to achieve something
• Etc.

Also bought 10 Tableau shares.

• Their Sales per share is also high
• I have been using it in office for 6 months, it is like the advanced version of Excel
• When there are many people that have equivalent Tableau skills like me and makes me seem ordinary, at least they are helping me in some ways to boost my shares
• Popularity can only keep rising as more companies embrace more efficient data analysis (unless another Tableau competitor makes it obsolete)

Also considered re-purchasing Ali Baba which I sold in IG account
But did not.
Even though they invested in numerous companies (Lazada and SingPost) that I see potential
And also they can help me capture the rising wealth of China's middle income

• I did not after looking at their Sales per Share.
• Their Share Price is $183, their Sales at $13 even though it is growing.
• I still do not love them enough to buy them yet.

Ascenda India Trust

Bought once and sold it before.
Now I am hoping to buy again.
Price dropped to 1.05, few weeks ago was 1.13.
Still not very clear about how to analyze REITs.
Read that PE ratio does not work for REITs.
So I use the following logic.

What is the Dividend Yield?
Do you think the properties will be in demand in future?
If so, there is a chance they may be able to charge higher rents for it.

I am bullish on tech.
India has massive tech talents there.
The country is growing faster than China now.

Bye intel, for now maybe

Sold Intel shares on my IG account today, after it rose 1.7% and my profit/loss is neutral.
Now the shares in my account looks cleaner. One less share, one less daily fee.

Market tank, good timing for new Ameritrade account

Big drop in stock market past 2 days.

Took the chance to clear out stocks in my IG market account.
I opened an Ameritrade account, they have an office in Singapore.
Got to know from my friend that they do not charge any fee for holding onto your US shares.
But I will still keep my Uniqlo shares inside, as Ameritrade do not offer Japanese shares, and I can still use their platforms for some analysis.

The below was before the market opened, and before I sold some shares.

The following is after I cleared some.

I sold Ali Baba, Tesla and Tableau.
Ali Baba was because it rose slightly to become no loss.
Tableau was because it spiked sharply in the past few days, but went down slightly.
Tesla was because it did not dip as badly as the others.
So my rational was to sell stocks that were not badly affected by the market-wide drop.
Because if the market continue to tank, these stocks will be hit more to compensate.

At the moment, I am happy that I managed to reduce my holdings in IG market, which the daily cost of compulsory leverage are taxing my day by day.
If the market continues to dip, I will be looking to increase my Google shares using Ameritrade trade.
My next target to buy is 1000, which is the next Support Level.

The main reason why I reduce the size of my IG account is so that if the market continues tanking, I will have a good proportion of funds to seize the opportunity.
I may also start buying some SGX shares, as there were also some heavy dips there.